The first two rounds of March Madness are done and after a ton of chaos, we are down to 16 teams. With that, our team here at The Next Round didn’t do a great job picking Final Four teams as we all have at least two gone after only two rounds.
The bracket challenge this year is that the loser will be flown to a random location and has to find their way home using a train, car and bus. Who will be the one that has to travel the country? Here are the current standings:
Jim – 38
Ryan – 36 (-2)
Lance – 34 (-4)
This will come down to a few select games. Jim and Lance have Gonzaga winning it all while Ryan has Villanova hoisting the trophy. The math on this is a little weird to figure out, so hopefully there are no mistakes.
The biggest games coming up are:
Texas Tech vs. Duke – Lance and Ryan have Duke, Jim has Texas Tech.
Duke Wins
Ryan (+4) – 40
Jim (0) – 38 (-2)
Lance (+4) – 38 (-2)
Texas Tech Wins
Jim (+4) – 42
Ryan (0) – 36 (-6)
Lance (0) – 34 (-8)
UCLA vs. North Carolina – Jim has UCLA, no one has North Carolina. This will vault Jim further into the lead with a UCLA win but won’t affect last place.
Kansas vs. Providence – This is where Ryan can fall behind. He had Iowa in the Final Four, but Lance and Jim both have Kansas advancing in this game and Jim has Kansas in the Final Four.
Kansas Wins
Jim (+4) – 42
Lance (+4) – 38 (-4)
Ryan (0) – 36 (-6)
Providence Wins
Nothing changes
Villanova vs. Michigan – This is where Ryan can take off into first place. He is the only one that has Villanova advancing past the Sweet 16, and not only that, but winning the title.
Villanova Wins
Ryan (+4) – 40
Jim (0) – 38 (-2)
Lance (0) – 34 (-6)
Michigan Wins
Nothing changes
So depending on what happens in the Sweet 16, Lance can’t move into first, but he can move into a tie with Jim for second. Here is where things will stand after the Sweet 16 based on a few games, but not counting similar wins (Arizona/Gonzaga):
Cases for Jim
Best Case – Kansas, Texas Tech, UCLA win which gives him +12. Texas Tech and UCLA gives him a unique +8 where Lance can not catch him.
Worst Case – Jim is +4 on Lance right now. If Duke and North Carolina win (Lance +4), then he will need Kansas to make it to the Final Four to jump back ahead of Lance. If not, he will be tied with Lance because their brackets are the same outside that, so it will come down to the tiebreaker where Jim has 142 points. If Texas Tech OR UCLA win over Duke/UNC then Jim will get +4 and that means Jim will remain ahead of Lance regardless. This only matters if Villanova wins the title putting Ryan in first.
Cases for Lance
Best Case – Kansas, Duke, North Carolina win which gives him +8. Duke gives him +4 on Jim which will catch him up to put him in a tie. Then it will come down to two factors:
1) Kansas MUST lose in the Elite 8 or else Lance is guaranteed to be behind Jim.
2) The score in the championship must be 139 or lower for Lance to win the score tiebreaker.
Worst Case – If Texas Tech wins, then Jim will move +8 on Lance and no matter what happens, Lance can’t pass him because Jim has all the same winners. If Villanova also wins the title or Gonzaga doesn’t win it all, then Lance is last.
Best Case for Ryan
Best Case – Simply put – Villanova has to go all the way. He’s already +2 on Lance. If Villanova doesn’t win it all, he will need either Kansas to lose in the Sweet 16 or Villanova to at least win one game along with Gonzaga not winning it all to not be in last.
Worst Case – Ryan has Gonzaga in the title, but he needs them to not win to be in better shape. A Kansas win over Providence will move Lance ahead of Ryan, but a Villanova win of any kind will cancel it out and put Ryan back in front. Ryan can only finish last if – Gonzaga wins it all. Villanova winning to the championship will only provide 28 more and Gonzaga winning will give 32 to Jim/Lance.
The short version of this is:
Gonzaga wins it all – Ryan Brown loses
Gonzaga doesn’t win it all – It’s more complicated, but if Villanova wins anything from this point on, then it will likely be between Jim and Lance for last.
